Arizona @ Colorado
Colorado -1½ +295 over Arizona

Posted at 10:00 AM EST. Odds are subject to change.

Colorado -1½ +295 over Arizona

Here's hoping that Colorado is the fly in Arizona's ointment. Colorado owns one of the worst records in baseball, has been playing out the string for months and will be booking tee times shortly. Arizona, meanwhile, still has a pulse in the playoff race. It's faint, but it's there. That creates one of our favorite late-September situations: a team with absolutely nothing to lose getting an opportunity to make sure its division rival joins them on the golf course.

For Colorado, this is about as meaningful as a September game can get after the season has already been lost. The Rockies can't save their own year, but they can help destroy Arizona's. Players understand that. Nobody in that Colorado clubhouse wants the Diamondbacks celebrating a win at their expense while keeping their postseason hopes alive. Call it the spoiler role, call it pride or call it misery loving company. Whatever you call it, the Rockies have something tangible to play for tonight.

Then there's Coors Field, which has spent decades laughing at anyone who thinks they know how a baseball game is supposed to unfold. No lead is particularly comfortable, no pitcher is completely safe and a routine inning can become five runs before you've finished making a sandwich. That volatility matters when we're being offered this kind of price. We're not interested in Colorado simply winning at a much shorter number. If we're going to step in front of Arizona with one of baseball's worst teams, we want to get paid properly when we're right.

That's where +270 on the reverse run line comes in. We certainly aren't suggesting Colorado is likely to win by multiple runs. At this price, they don't have to be. We're looking for a situation where the probability and the payoff don't match, and Coors Field provides exactly the environment capable of turning a close game into a crooked-number mess in a hurry. Arizona desperately needs this one. Colorado would love nothing more than to help make sure they don't get it. At almost 3-1, we'll take our chances that if the Rockies win tonight, they don't stop at one.

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Our Pick

Colorado -1½ +295 (Risking 2 units - To Win: 5.90)

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Cincinnati -1½ +250 over Atlanta
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