Posted at 11:00 PM EST. Odds are subject to change.

Thursday, March 19

Georgia -2 -110 over Saint Louis

KeyBank Center – Buffalo, NY

9:45 PM EST. We’re going to lay the short number with Georgia here, as this is a spot where the market is giving far too much credit to Saint Louis based on a record that doesn’t tell the full story. The Billikens piled up wins early in the season against one of the weakest non-conference schedules in the country, and that inflated record is now carrying weight it doesn’t deserve. When the level of competition increased, the cracks started to show. Their recent stretch heading into the tournament included multiple losses by wide margins, and even in games they survived, they were pushed to the brink.

Georgia, on the other hand, has been battle-tested all season long. Playing in the SEC means facing high-level competition on a nightly basis, and that experience matters in this type of matchup. The Bulldogs have proven they can compete with — and beat — top-tier opponents, and they bring a level of physicality and pace that Saint Louis has not consistently dealt with. Offensively, Georgia is far more dynamic, with multiple scoring options and the ability to generate efficient looks against quality defenses.

The difference in strength of schedule and overall competition level is significant here, and it shows up in how these teams perform against legitimate opponents. Saint Louis has benefited from beating up weaker teams, while Georgia has been sharpened by playing against some of the best in the country. With a modest price of -2½, this is a spot where the stronger, more proven team is being undervalued. Georgia has the edge in competition, scoring ability, and overall toughness, making them the right side in this matchup.

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