Posted at 10:00 AM EST. Odds are subject to change.

Bowling Green +3½ -108 over Georgia St.

1:00 PM EST. Season openers are chaos merchants. Bowling Green visits Georgia State tonight to open the year in the MAC-Sun Belt Challenge.The programs' recent histories point the same way. Bowling Green went 18-14 last season and could actually score — 81.3 points a game on 47.6 percent shooting — while Georgia State staggered home 10-22, gave up 74.7 points a night (207th in the country), let opponents shoot 43.7 percent, and closed its season on a four-game losing skid. A defense that leaky doesn't get fixed by a calendar flip, and an offence built like Bowling Green's,  multiple shooters, pace, real efficiency — is exactly the profile that travels in November and hangs a number on a soft home defense. If this turns into the up-and-down game the 156.5 total is advertising, that favours the team with more ways to score, and that isn't the hosts.

The caveats, plainly, because opening night earns them. Last season's numbers are a weak guide in the portal era, both rosters have been rebuilt, neither team has played a real game, and chemistry in game one is a coin flip in both directions. Georgia State was also a different animal in its own building last year: 7-7 at home against 3-12 on the road, so the Convocation Center crowd and comfort are real parts of why they're favoured. Bowling Green has a scheduling wrinkle of its own, as well,  it flies home tonight and hosts Cleveland State tomorrow, back-to-back days to open the season, which can mean managed minutes if this one gets away early in either direction. And a 156.5 total means variance, a hot shooting night from the home team covers 3.5 in a hurry. Still a dog the models have winning outright, against a 10-win team with a bottom-third defence, catching a full possession and the hook's neighbour. That's the side. Take Bowling Green.

Sportsinteraction