Posted at 10:00 AM EST. Odds are subject to change.

Buffalo +114 over Marshall

7:00 PM EST. Buffalo opens its season at Marshall tonight in the MAC-Sun Belt Challenge, and the Bulls arrive as a road underdog with a profile worth respecting. They finished 8-6 away from home last season, a winning road record for a mid-major, and under George Halcovage III they are 26-3 when leading with five minutes remaining. That is a team that travels well and closes games out, and the moneyline pays a premium for a group that has already shown it can walk into an unfamiliar gym, build a lead, and protect it down the stretch. The ceiling has changed as well, because Buffalo added a genuine headline talent this fall. J.J. Starling, a former five-star recruit and McDonald's All-American, was named a preseason MAC Player of the Year candidate and ran the show in the Bulls' exhibition win over Mercyhurst with 14 points, eight rebounds, and seven assists. He is now the most talented player on the floor, and Marshall's proven returning production amounts largely to one man: Noah Otshud, a capable guard who averaged 14.5 points and 3.4 assists last season, on a roster picked fifth in its own league. The underlying matchup also tilts toward the visitor. Marshall could score a year ago at 81.1 points per game, but it allowed 78.0, ranking 301st nationally in scoring defence. A vulnerable defence in a season opener, against a team that shot 47.3 percent last season and has just added a creator who draws defenders toward him, is a difficult starting point. There are reasons for caution. Marshall's home crowd is traditionally unforgiving toward November visitors, and Buffalo's own defence was nothing special either, allowing 76.2 points per game to rank 244th. This could easily become a shootout decided by home legs in the final four minutes, and it is opening night, with rebuilt rosters and all the sloppiness that entails. Starling's Buffalo career is also exactly one exhibition old. Even so, the profile fits a moneyline play: a road-tested team that closes games, the best player on the floor, and plus money against a home side whose defence was among the nation's most generous a year ago

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