Posted at 10:00 AM EST. Odds are subject to change.

Spartan Stadium, East Lansing, MI

Streaming: FS1

Michigan St -10 +100 over Toledo

8:00 PM EST. This game goes tomorrow on Friday, but we like the number and we're going to sell a half a point to take it to -10 +100. There is a price at which Toledo becomes interesting here, but this isn't it. We have this number closer to two touchdowns, making Michigan State one of the more underpriced favorites on Friday's board. Toledo's 2025 defensive numbers were outstanding, but those numbers belong largely to players who are no longer there. The Rockets lost all nine of their All-MAC defenders and return almost nothing from last year's starting unit. New head coach Mike Jacobs has brought several players with him from Mercer, but replacing an experienced MAC defense with transfers stepping up from the FCS level is a significant transition. The market appears to be assigning too much weight to what Toledo was last season instead of what it actually brings to East Lansing.

Michigan State, meanwhile, has considerably more continuity where it matters. Alessio Milivojevic returns at quarterback after showing promise in limited work, Cam Edwards gives the Spartans an established weapon in the backfield, and the offensive line has been reinforced with experienced run blockers. That is a difficult assignment for a Toledo front seven being rebuilt almost from scratch. The Rockets are undergoing significant turnover offensively as well, which makes it difficult to envision them consistently sustaining drives against a Michigan State defense that retains legitimate Big Ten talent, including linebacker Jordan Hall. Toledo doesn't necessarily have to play poorly to fall behind here; Michigan State simply owns substantial advantages in size, depth and experience.

There is also an interesting coaching dynamic. Jacobs has earned his opportunity after successful stops at Division II and FCS, but his first game as an FBS head coach comes on the road against Pat Fitzgerald, an established Big Ten coach beginning a new chapter at Michigan State. Fitzgerald inherits a program with resources, returning pieces and every reason to establish a different standard immediately. We don't put much stock in laying points simply because a Big Ten team is hosting a MAC opponent, but we do when the number is deflated.  

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