Bookmaker    +210

Posted at 8:00 AM ET. Odds are subject to change

Everton +210 (To Win in Full Time) over Leeds United

Elland Road – Leeds, England

English Premier League

3:00 PM ET. The story sells itself. Leeds is unbeaten in 13 straight dating back to their dominant promotion push. They haven’t lost at Elland Road in eight. Everton, meanwhile, is winless in six and looked like a mess throughout preseason. On paper, it feels like a mismatch. The market disagrees — and that’s our invitation.

This one opened close to a coin flip. Leeds was +166, Everton +175. The oddsmakers didn’t buy into the narrative then, and we’re not about to now. Since the open, the money has poured in on the hosts, driving their price down to +130 and inflating the Toffees to north of +200. That’s the market falling in love with form. We’re fading it.

There’s also this: the total is juiced to the under, and Everton +0.5 is chalky at -155. Translation? Books aren’t expecting a Leeds blowout — they’re expecting a tight match.

The Toffees’ preseason results were uninspiring, sure — losses to Roma, Bournemouth, Blackburn, and a draw with Accrington Stanley — but they came with half-speed lineups and trialists all over the pitch. Friendlies are friendlies. Meanwhile, Leeds’ run came in the Championship, not against Premier League opposition. There’s a difference.

Leeds enters with the buzz, but Everton is better than the scoreboard has recently shown. They’ve added depth, stability, and experience — and they’re being treated like fodder because of a few bad preseason optics. This is exactly the kind of setup we wait for: perception running wild and price drifting to where it doesn’t belong.

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