Bookmaker   +145

Posted at 8:00 AM ET. Odds are subject to change

Port Vale +145 (To Win in Full Time) over Stevenage

Vale Park – Stoke-on-Trent, England

England League One

2:45 PM ET. Port Vale is a mess — or at least that’s what the table says. Winless through three, one goal scored, and sitting near the foot of the League One ladder. Stevenage, meanwhile, have stormed out of the gates. Three games, three wins. They’ve already gone into Blackpool and won, which suddenly looks even more impressive after Blackpool buried Huddersfield on the weekend. Public perception? Stevenage is flying. Port Vale is flailing. So explain this price.

Vale opened as the favourite. At home, yes, but the price is still bizarre: +145 on Vale, +200 on Stevenage. That is not how the market typically prices an in-form side against a bottom dweller. That’s not recency bias. That’s sharp respect. That’s the market screaming, “You’re looking at this all wrong.”

If the form guide and table position meant everything, Stevenage would be chalk or close to it. Instead, the oddsmakers have hung a number that dares you to bite on the "obvious" side — Stevenage — while backing the side with no wins, no goals, and no momentum.

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