Bookmaker    +115

Posted at 8:00 AM ET. Odds are subject to change

Bristol Rovers +115 (To Win in Full Time) over Oldham Athletic

Memorial Stadium – Bristol, England

England League Two

2:45 PM ET. This is one of those setups that turns the stomach — and that’s exactly why we like it.

Bristol Rovers have been abysmal at home. Eight straight losses at Memorial Park dating back to last year. This season, they’re 0-3 with zero points and a -6 goal differential. There’s no spin to put on it. This team stinks — or so it seems.

Now here comes Oldham. A feel-good story. Promoted from the National League. Two draws in three. Undefeated and plucky. A team people want to back and yet, here’s Bristol Rovers lined as the favourite. How?

It’s because the number knows. Form is fleeting. The market is the truth. The fact that Rovers are still being priced as the likelier winner tells us everything. If they had even a hint of home form, this line is closer to -125. Instead, we get a buy-low number on the side the market still believes in.

Oldham are being propped up by narrative. Rovers are being held down by optics. We’ll take the value on the side the market hasn’t quit on — not the one everyone wants to believe in.

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