Bookmaker    +190

Posted at 8:00 AM ET. Odds are subject to change

Derby County +190 (To Win in Full Time) over Bristol City

Pride Park Stadium – Derby, England

England Championship

3:00 PM ET. This is a classic case of perception versus reality. The Rams opened as the +155 favorite to take three points here, with Bristol City lined at +170. Since then, it’s been one-way traffic on the Ciders, pushing Derby all the way to a near two-to-one underdog in their own house. That kind of drift gives us value.

And the reasoning behind the move is clear — Bristol City come in as the form side. Three games unbeaten, four points on the board, and currently sitting fourth in the Championship table. Their biggest splash was a statement 4-1 thrashing of Sheffield United in the opener, a Blades side that just last year played in the promotional final and narrowly missed the jump to the Premier League. Add it all up and the Ciders’ stock has shot upward.

Derby County, meanwhile, look like easy prey on paper. They barely dodged relegation last year and have stumbled out of the gates again, sitting 22nd with no points from two matches, outscored 8-4 by Stoke and Coventry. For the casual observer, Bristol is flying and Derby is sinking. Yet, despite all this, the oddsmakers originally lined the Rams as the favorite. That’s not by accident.

This isn’t a throwaway game hidden on a crowded Saturday slate either. It’s a primetime matchup with national eyes just behind Chelsea–West Ham. The books dangled Bristol as the “obvious” side, and the market gobbled it up. We won’t follow. Derby were installed as favorites for a reason, and manager John Eustace has openly said his side is focused on putting things right.

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