Bookmaker    +200

Posted at 8:00 AM ET. Odds are subject to change

Newcastle United +200 (To Win in Full Time) over Liverpool

St. James' Park – Newcastle-upon-Tyne, England

3:00 PM ET. Liverpool is royalty. The shirts, the silverware, the history — you don’t bet against the Reds lightly. That’s exactly why they’re spotting juice on the road in one of the loudest, nastiest venues in world football. But in this business, we don’t care about crowns. We care about price. And this price is wrong.

St. James’ Park is a cauldron. A Monday evening on Tyneside under the lights? That’s the recipe for mayhem. Newcastle may be off to a lukewarm start, but there’s nothing timid about this side when they’re on the front foot in their own building. They’ve taken just one point from two fixtures, sure, but the underlying metrics suggest the performance hasn’t matched the results.

This isn’t about current form or head-to-heads. This is about a market that has Liverpool inflated off reputation and hardware while discounting a home side that can go toe-to-toe in midfield and has the attacking pace to catch the champs off balance.

We’re seeing a Magpies number that reflects early-season anxiety and public overconfidence in Liverpool. It’s a setup the market creates all the time — royalty walks in, the price shortens, and the sharp side gets buried. Not here. Not today.

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