Bookmaker    +200

Posted at 8:00 AM ET. Odds are subject to change

Wigan Athletic +200 (To Win in Full Time) over Stockport County

The Brick Community Stadium at Robin Park – Wigan, England

EFL Cup

2:45 PM ET. You want to talk about recency bias? Stockport’s sitting top-five in League One, riding good vibes and good headlines. The market sees that and lines them as a road favorite in a midweek cup tie. No thanks.

This isn’t a league fixture. It’s the EFL Cup — and this version of Wigan is built for chaos. They’ve been perfect at The Brick this year. Two clean sheets and a +4 goal differential in three home dates. That includes a clinical 3-0 takedown of Carlisle, and a hard-fought 1-0 over Lincoln.

Stockport? They’ve looked the part at Edgeley Park, but the road tells a different story. A win at Wycombe doesn’t carry the weight the market thinks it does. The Chairboys are circling the drain. This is a tougher place to play, with a far less forgiving environment.

Now add this wrinkle: these two sides meet again on Saturday in league play. The market has that priced nearly identical — Wigan +190, Stockport +145. So what gives here? Why is Wigan priced longer today than they will be in four days on the same pitch against the same team? The answer is in the shirts. Cup matchups confuse the market because motivation varies. We’re not confused.

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