Posted at 8:00 AM ET. Odds are subject to change

GEORGIA +200 (To Win in Full Time) over Turkey

Boris Paichadze Dinamo Arena – Tbilisi, Georgia

Europe World Cup Qualifying

FIFA World Cup 2026

12:00 PM ET. Not to be confused with the Dawgs, Georgia is a side with little curb appeal on the international stage compared to Turkey, who is expected to dominate this qualification group. But for those who watched EURO 2024, Georgia proved it can punch well above its weight. This is the same side that shocked Portugal, a top-ten team in the world, and then gave Spain all it could handle.

The problem is perception. The market remembers the last time these two sides met: Turkey earned a decisive 3-1 win at EURO 2024. Add in Georgia’s most recent international result — a 1-1 draw with Cape Verde — and the image painted is of a side incapable of stringing together meaningful results. Those memories linger, even if they’re dated. Meanwhile, Turkey’s recent résumé looks far stronger: victories over the United States and Hungary (twice), spirited draws against Wales, and a strong showing against Mexico at the Azteca. On paper, the Crescent Stars look like the side ready to march on.

But that’s exactly why the line here is telling. Turkey is supposed to roll, yet the market has priced Georgia as live. The Crusaders have the Dinamo Arena packed, and the atmosphere will be far more hostile and energized than Turkey expects. The Crescent Stars go from hunter to hunted in this spot, and that’s a shift many teams struggle with when asked to close the show on the road.

The setup is clear: a motivated home side, an underrated squad that has already shown it can spring upsets, and a number that speaks louder than the headlines. We’re backing Georgia to take all three points in Tbilisi.

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