Posted at 11:00 AM EST. Odds are subject to change.

Miami +105 over Minnesota

1:40 PM EST. Braxton Garrett (LHP - MIA) makes his season debut for Miami and while the sample size is obviously limited, this is still a pitcher with solid underlying skills when healthy. Garrett has consistently shown above-average command throughout his career and does an excellent job limiting walks and hard contact. Miami is hoping he can immediately stabilize a rotation that has quietly pitched better than expected over the last couple of weeks. Garrett’s ability to change speeds and generate weak contact could play well against a Minnesota lineup that has been inconsistent offensively for much of the season, especially against left-handed pitching. Even more encouraging for Miami backers is the fact the Marlins have started swinging the bats better lately and continue to offer value in underdog spots because the market still prices them like one of the league’s weakest teams.

Zebby Matthews (RHP - MIN) is expected to be called up from Triple-A St. Paul for this start and there are legitimate concerns surrounding the young right-hander. Matthews struggled badly in the majors last season, posting a 5.56 ERA across 16 starts, and his numbers at Triple-A this year haven’t exactly inspired confidence either. Through 34.1 innings at St. Paul, Matthews owns a 4.72 ERA along with a bloated 1.52 WHIP, meaning he’s consistently allowing traffic on the bases. Control and command have both been issues and that becomes dangerous against a Miami lineup that can manufacture runs with speed and aggressive situational hitting. Asking a struggling young pitcher to deliver immediately at the major-league level is always risky, especially against a team with nothing to lose offensively.

This looks like a strong value spot taking Miami at plus money because the pitching matchup is much more even than public perception suggests. Minnesota is being priced based largely on reputation and home field, but the Twins continue to lack consistency offensively and now hand the ball to an inexperienced starter with shaky recent form. Garrett brings more stability, more major-league experience and a skill set capable of frustrating impatient lineups. Miami also tends to thrive in these overlooked road spots where pressure sits entirely on the favorite. If Garrett keeps the ball down and Miami applies early pressure against Matthews, the Marlins have a very realistic shot to win this game outright.

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