Today's Free Picks for
Posted at 11:00 AM EST. Odds are subject to change.
Washington +135 over Cincinnati
12:40 PM EST. Foster Griffin (LHP - WSH) has quietly been one of the more effective under-the-radar additions for Washington this season. The former Yomiuri Giants left-hander enters this matchup with a sharp 2.15 ERA and has provided steady innings every time he’s taken the mound. Some regression could eventually arrive considering Griffin has benefited from a very low .216 BABIP, but his overall profile still fits well against this Cincinnati lineup. Griffin attacks the strike zone, limits free passes and has consistently worked deep enough into games to keep pressure off the bullpen. Most importantly, he draws a Reds offense that has struggled badly against left-handed pitching, producing just a .658 OPS while striking out at an elevated rate in those matchups.
Chase Burns (RHP - CIN) has also impressed with a 2.11 ERA and electric strikeout stuff, but there are still questions surrounding his consistency against disciplined lineups. Burns relies heavily on overpowering hitters early in counts and Washington’s offense has actually done a solid job this season grinding through at-bats and forcing opposing starters into stressful innings. The Nationals lineup has become far more competitive than expected, especially with CJ Abrams and Lane Thomas creating pressure at the top of the order. Cincinnati’s bullpen also remains vulnerable in close games and that becomes important in a matchup that projects as low scoring and tightly contested throughout.Washington continues to offer strong value in these underdog spots because the market still under
values how competitive this team has become. The Nationals match up well against left-handed vulnerable offenses and Cincinnati has simply not generated enough consistent production to justify this type of favorite role. Griffin’s ability to navigate lineups multiple times is especially important against a Reds team that has struggled significantly the third time through the order against opposing pitchers. If Washington can force Burns into deeper counts early and get traffic on the bases, the pressure quickly shifts onto a shaky Cincinnati bullpen. With plus money attached and the matchup favoring Washington more than the odds suggest, the Nationals are worth backing outright.
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Our Pick
Washington +135 (Risking 22 units - To Win: 29.70)