Posted at 10:00 AM EST. Odds are subject to change.

St. Louis +135 over Chicago

Kyle Leahy (RHP - STL, 4.11 ERA) Shota Imanaga (LHP - CHC, 4.32 ERA)

8:08 PM EST. The Cardinals have value as an underdog because this matchup is far more competitive than it appears at first glance. Kyle Leahy enters with a 4.11 ERA, and while he doesn't overpower hitters, he has done an excellent job of limiting damage by throwing strikes and keeping his club in games. Leahy has shown the ability to induce weak contact and work efficiently through opposing lineups, giving St. Louis a chance to hand the game over to its bullpen with the score still within reach. Offensively, the Cardinals have been one of the National League's more consistent lineups, ranking among the league leaders in team batting average while continuing to produce quality at-bats from top to bottom.

The Cubs counter with Shota Imanaga (LHP - CHC, 4.32 ERA), who has not looked nearly as dominant as he did during stretches of last season. While Imanaga still possesses outstanding command and the ability to miss bats, he has been more vulnerable to hard contact and has allowed opponents to string together innings when his fastball command slips. That could be a problem against a disciplined St. Louis lineup that has consistently handled left-handed pitching and rarely gives away at-bats. The Cardinals have the offensive balance to pressure Imanaga early, and once they get into Chicago's middle relief, the matchup becomes much more even than the betting market suggests.

This has all the makings of a classic divisional upset. The Cubs are carrying much of the public support because they're at Wrigley Field and have the bigger name on the mound, but rivalry games between these clubs are rarely that straightforward. St. Louis has enough experience, enough offensive depth, and a starter capable of keeping the game under control long enough for its lineup to make the difference. In a matchup where every run will matter, the Cardinals are the side offering the better value. Back St. Louis to win outright, as this is another spot where perception favors Chicago while the matchup itself points toward a live underdog capable of stealing a road victory.

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