Posted at 10:00 AM EST. Odds are subject to change.

Washington -1½ +250 over Pittsburgh 

11:05 AM EST. Washington is the better team, yet the market continues to price Pittsburgh as though it's the superior club. The Nationals have won three straight games, they're playing above .500 baseball, they own a better record than the Pirates, and they're back at home. Despite all of that, Pittsburgh is being respected as a road favorite, and that's a price we're more than willing to fade.

Braxton Ashcraft has pitched well this season, but this is a difficult matchup for him. Washington has been swinging the bats with confidence over the past couple of weeks, posting well above-average offensive numbers while also ranking among the tougher teams to strike out against right-handed pitching. If Ashcraft isn't generating his usual swing-and-miss stuff, the Nationals have enough contact hitters and enough power to make him work for every out.

The total has climbed to 10, shaded to the over, which tells you conditions are expected to favor the hitters. In that type of environment, we're not interested in laying a road price with Pittsburgh. We'd much rather take the hotter team at home and play the reverse run line at a generous +250. If Washington wins, there's an excellent chance they do so by more than one run.

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