Posted at 10:00 AM EST. Odds are subject to change.

Cleveland +145 over Cincinnati

Christian Scott (RHP – New York) – 3.14 ERA

Chris Sale (LHP – Atlanta) – 2.19 ERA

7:10 PM EST. Chris Sale's ERA immediately grabs attention, but this matchup is far closer than the market suggests. Christian Scott has quietly developed into one of the more reliable young starters in the National League, pairing a 3.14 ERA with an xERA that supports his overall performance. Scott has generated strikeouts at roughly 9.5 K/9 while limiting walks to around 2.5 BB/9, giving him an excellent K-BB profile. His ability to pound the strike zone and keep hitters from barreling the baseball has allowed him to work efficiently through lineups, and his recent outings have reinforced that his success is backed by legitimate underlying metrics rather than good fortune.

Sale continues to pitch at a high level with a 2.19 ERA, but his underlying numbers are not untouchable. His xERA sits closer to the low-3.00 range, and while his strikeout rate remains elite at better than 11.0 K/9, his workload has demanded plenty of high-leverage pitches throughout the season. His BB/9 remains solid, yet opposing hitters have become more patient against him, forcing longer at-bats and creating opportunities once pitch counts begin to rise. Those are small cracks, but they're enough to make the underdog appealing.

The Mets have done an excellent job of grinding through plate appearances and forcing opposing starters to earn every out. Their lineup has shown the patience necessary to neutralize power pitchers, and playing at home only adds to that advantage. Scott has demonstrated the poise to match one of the league's premier starters inning for inning, and his combination of command and swing-and-miss stuff gives New York every opportunity to keep Atlanta's offense in check.

This is one of those games where perception creates value. Sale's reputation and sparkling ERA are driving the betting market, while Scott's quietly outstanding season has gone largely unnoticed. The gap between these starters is much smaller than the odds imply, making the Mets an attractive home underdog with an excellent opportunity to come away with the outright victory.

Take advantage of BET365's early NFL payout offer

Bet365 Early Payout – How It Works

Straight Bets:

If the team you back to win goes up by the designated number of points at any time during the game, BET365 will pay out your bet in full immediately, even if the opposing team later comes back and wins the game.

Parlays & Same Game Parlays:
If a team you’ve selected goes up by the designated number of points that selection will be marked as WON in My Bets. Any remaining legs of the parlay will continue to run as normal.

Once a selection is marked as won under the Early Payout rules, it cannot be reversed, regardless of what happens later in the game.

-----------------------------------------------------------------------------