Posted at 10:00 AM EST. Odds are subject to change.

St. Louis +100 over Chicago

Dustin May (RHP – St. Louis) – 4.59 ERA 

Matthew Boyd (LHP – Chicago) – 3.81 ERA

7:45 PM EST. Dustin May's 4.59 ERA doesn't accurately reflect how well he has pitched underneath the surface. His xERA has remained comfortably below his traditional ERA, pointing toward a pitcher who has deserved better results. May continues to miss bats at an impressive rate, carrying roughly 9.0 K/9 while limiting walks to around 2.5 BB/9. His heavy fastball generates plenty of weak contact, and his ability to keep the ball on the ground allows him to escape innings before they become damaging. Those underlying metrics make him a much stronger option than the market appears to believe.

Matthew Boyd has enjoyed a solid season with a 3.81 ERA, but several advanced indicators suggest that number has been difficult to sustain. His xERA trends higher than his ERA, while his strikeout rate sits closer to 8.0 K/9. Boyd has done a respectable job limiting walks, yet he remains more vulnerable to hard contact than May, particularly when facing lineups that stay patient and force him into deeper counts. That combination narrows the perceived gap between these two starters.

St. Louis has been at its best when playing at home, where its lineup consistently strings together quality at-bats and applies pressure throughout the order. The Cardinals have enough right-handed balance to challenge a left-handed starter, and May's improving underlying profile gives them every opportunity to control the game from the mound. His combination of strikeout ability and command provides a stable foundation against a division rival.

In our opinion this line gives you reason for pause. They are begging for Cubs money tonight. The oddsmakers are dangling the proverbial carrot……Don’t bite!

The market is giving Chicago plenty of credit behind Boyd, but the advanced numbers point toward better value on the home side. May has pitched better than his ERA suggests, his analytical profile continues to trend upward, and St. Louis is well positioned to take advantage. Back the Cardinals to defend home field behind the starter with the stronger current trajectory.

Take advantage of BET365's early NFL payout offer

Bet365 Early Payout – How It Works

Straight Bets:

If the team you back to win goes up by the designated number of points at any time during the game, BET365 will pay out your bet in full immediately, even if the opposing team later comes back and wins the game.

Parlays & Same Game Parlays:
If a team you’ve selected goes up by the designated number of points that selection will be marked as WON in My Bets. Any remaining legs of the parlay will continue to run as normal.

Once a selection is marked as won under the Early Payout rules, it cannot be reversed, regardless of what happens later in the game.

-----------------------------------------------------------------------------