Posted at 8:00 AM ET. Odds are subject to change

Western Michigan +27½ over Illinois

Memorial Stadium, Champaign, IL Streaming: FS1

7:00 PM EST. Illinois has jumped out to a strong start and earned national recognition with its early blowouts, but this week’s matchup is a classic case of perception outpacing reality. The Illini put up gaudy point totals, but those results were aided by opponents’ turnovers and sloppy second-half play rather than four quarters of dominance. Their offensive line is still giving up sacks, and the Big Ten opener at Indiana is looming just around the corner. That makes this the ultimate “look-ahead” spot, and history shows Illinois has rarely been trustworthy as a large favorite in non-conference games. Asking them to cover nearly three touchdowns against a feisty MAC opponent feels like more of a stretch than the number suggests.

Western Michigan doesn’t have a flashy offense, but what they do bring is discipline, defensive structure, and a special teams unit that can tilt the field. Broncos punter Ryan Millmore has already been a difference-maker, routinely flipping field position and forcing opponents to drive long distances. Against North Texas, WMU trusted its defense so much that it punted from the opponent’s 33-yard line — a sign of a team that knows its strengths and embraces an ugly, grind-it-out style of play. That same approach travels well as a heavy underdog, particularly against a favorite that’s unlikely to fully empty the playbook in this spot.

The last time these teams met in 2016, Western Michigan didn’t just cover — they dominated Illinois outright, winning by 24 while outgaining them by more than 120 yards. While the programs have shifted since then, the core principle remains: Illinois is not built to steamroll opponents as a big favorite, while WMU thrives in the underdog role. The Broncos bring enough defensive resistance and situational value to keep this one inside the number. The play is Western Michigan plus the points.

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