Posted at 8:00 AM ET. Odds are subject to change

Central Michigan +27½ -110 over Michigan

Michigan Stadium, Ann Arbor, MI

Streaming: BIG-10 Network (BTN)

12:00 PM EST. Michigan comes into this one as a heavy favorite, but this is hardly the kind of spot that inspires confidence when laying a massive number. Interim coach Biff Poggi will be on the sideline while Sherrone Moore serves the first part of his suspension, which creates an unusual leadership gap for a program already under the microscope. Michigan is talented enough to overwhelm Central Michigan in the trenches, but the Wolverines’ track record as a big chalk in early-season, non-conference games is shaky at best. With Nebraska looming next week in a true Big Ten test, the question is whether Michigan is treating this game as a tune-up or a true measuring stick. That uncertainty creates risk for anyone backing the favorite at this inflated price.

Central Michigan, meanwhile, isn’t the pushover the number suggests. The Chippewas opened the year with an outright upset as a double-digit underdog and then battled Pitt closer than expected, trailing by only a touchdown late into the third quarter. They’ve shown resilience against stronger rosters and have the offensive balance to at least trade a few punches before Michigan’s depth wears them down. This is also a program that historically hasn’t been afraid to take big checks from Power 5 schools and still compete inside the number. Spot bettors know the Chippewas are 5-1 ATS when catching four-plus touchdowns, and they enter this matchup playing with house money.

The market is treating this like a Michigan blowout, but that creates value the other way. A distracted Wolverine squad with one eye on Nebraska is not an ideal candidate to cover a number north of three touchdowns. Central Michigan brings energy, confidence, and a proven track record of fighting above its weight class. Michigan will almost certainly win straight up, but the ATS angle favors the Chips to keep this closer than expected.

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