Posted at 11:00 AM EST. Odds are subject to change.

Milwaukee -1½ +150 over San Diego

7:40 PM EST. Jacob Misiorowski (RHP - MIL) has quickly become one of the most electric young arms in baseball and he enters this matchup in dominant form. Misiorowski owns a 2.45 ERA on the season and has been nearly untouchable over his last two starts, allowing zero earned runs while striking out 19 batters across 11.1 innings. His combination of upper-90s velocity and wipeout secondary pitches has overwhelmed opposing hitters and now he gets a favorable matchup against a Padres lineup that has struggled badly against right-handed pitching. San Diego is batting just .221 against righties this season and has looked vulnerable against high-strikeout arms capable of attacking the top of the zone. Misiorowski’s swing-and-miss ability gives Milwaukee a massive edge if he continues locating early in counts.

Michael King Michael King (RHP - SD) has also been excellent this year with a 2.80 ERA and continues to be one of the more reliable starters in the National League. The problem for San Diego is that King often has very little margin for error because the Padres offense has been inconsistent for much of the season, especially away from home. Milwaukee’s lineup has quietly been productive at American Family Field and the Brewers continue to pressure opposing defenses with speed, aggressive baserunning and situational hitting. The Brewers are also one of the tougher teams in baseball to put away late because of their bullpen depth and ability to manufacture insurance runs in the middle innings.

The value here sits with Milwaukee on the run line at plus money because this game profiles as far more even than the market suggests. Misiorowski has been pitching like a frontline ace over the last two weeks and San Diego’s struggles against power right-handers are difficult to ignore. Milwaukee is also one of the better home teams in the National League and tends to thrive in low-scoring games where pitching and bullpen depth become the deciding factor. If the Brewers get an early lead behind Misiorowski, they have the bullpen arms to extend that advantage and create separation late. Backing Milwaukee on the run line gives strong plus-money value with the hotter starter and the better current matchup.

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