Posted at 11:00 AM EST. Odds are subject to change.

Baltimore  +125 over Seattle

(RHP – Shane Baz vs. RHP – Bryan Woo)

4:10 PM EST. Bryan Woo has developed into one of Seattle's most dependable starters, but the market has become increasingly aggressive when pricing him. While Woo's underlying metrics remain strong, his 4.28 ERA tells the story of a pitcher who has not been nearly as dominant as public perception suggests. He continues to throw strikes and limit walks, but he has also been vulnerable when hitters make contact, particularly against better offensive clubs.

Baltimore sends Shane Baz to the mound, and while his overall numbers are not as appealing, there are reasons for optimism. Baz continues to possess premium velocity and quality swing-and-miss stuff. His xERA is elevated, but he remains capable of neutralizing good lineups when he's commanding the fastball. The Orioles do not need him to be perfect. They simply need him to keep the game manageable long enough for a talented offense to create opportunities.

Seattle's pitching reputation and home-field advantage are carrying significant weight in this number. Baltimore remains one of the more dangerous offensive teams in the American League and is more than capable of winning games against quality pitching. When a team with this much talent is being offered at a generous underdog price, we're interested.

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