Posted at 11:00 AM EST. Odds are subject to change.

New York +110 over Philadelphia

(LHP – Sean Manaea vs. RHP – Aaron Nola)

6:40 PM EST. This matchup is being priced largely on name recognition. Aaron Nola has been one of baseball's most reliable starters for years, but his 2026 numbers tell a different story. Nola enters with a 5.86 ERA and has been plagued by the long ball, allowing 1.66 home runs per nine innings. While his underlying metrics suggest he has pitched better than that ERA indicates, the results have consistently fallen short of expectations.

Sean Manaea's season has been somewhat unusual, bouncing between roles while logging fewer innings than most starters on the board. Still, his strikeout rate remains healthy, and his underlying metrics compare favorably with Nola's. Manaea has been hurt by some poor fortune on balls in play, but his profile suggests he is capable of better results going forward.

The Phillies continue to attract strong market support because of their reputation and home field, but this line feels too heavily influenced by past performance rather than current form. The Mets remain a dangerous offensive team, and in a matchup where the starting pitching edge is far less significant than the odds imply, the underdog deserves consideration.

Take advantage of BET365's early NFL payout offer

Bet365 Early Payout – How It Works

Straight Bets:

If the team you back to win goes up by the designated number of points at any time during the game, BET365 will pay out your bet in full immediately, even if the opposing team later comes back and wins the game.

Parlays & Same Game Parlays:
If a team you’ve selected goes up by the designated number of points that selection will be marked as WON in My Bets. Any remaining legs of the parlay will continue to run as normal.

Once a selection is marked as won under the Early Payout rules, it cannot be reversed, regardless of what happens later in the game.

-----------------------------------------------------------------------------