Posted at 10:00 AM EST. Odds are subject to change.

Friday, March 20

Tennessee St +24½ over Iowa St

Enterprise Center – St. Louis, MO

7:35 PM EST. This number doesn’t line up with the matchup. Tennessee State plays at a relentless pace—over 70 possessions per game—and they score early in the shot clock as well as anyone. That’s not opinion, that’s straight from Iowa State’s own coaching staff. You’re not dealing with a slow, overmatched 15-seed that’s going to get buried in the half court. You’re dealing with a team that pushes tempo, fires threes, and forces turnovers on 20% of possessions.

That matters when you’re catching 24½.

Iowa State plays fast too, but that cuts both ways. A high-possession game creates volatility, and volatility is the enemy of a big favorite laying a massive number. Tennessee State doesn’t need to win matchups—they need to score, push, and keep possessions flowing. That’s exactly what they do.

There’s also current form. Iowa State is 4-4 in its last eight games and coming off an emotional loss in the Big 12 tournament. Tennessee State has won six straight and hasn’t played in 13 days—fresh legs, full prep, and a team coming in with momentum and belief under a coach that has them completely bought in.

And they can shoot.

Aaron Nkrumah and Travis Harper II combine for 30+ a game, and Harper shoots over 40% from three. That’s the exact profile that keeps a team inside a big number. You hit a few early, you stretch the floor, and suddenly this isn’t a 30-point game—it’s a game that hovers in the high teens, low 20s.

Iowa State wins. They’re the better team. But this isn’t a grind-it-out mismatch where one side gets suffocated. The pace, the shooting, and the turnover pressure all point to a game that stays within range.

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