Posted at 10:00 AM EST. Odds are subject to change.

Friday, March 20

Hofstra +475 over Alabama

Benchmark International Arena, Tampa, FL

3:15 PM EST. This is the type of upset that actually makes sense. Alabama comes in as the bigger name, the higher seed, and the team the public expects to roll—but this is not a clean situation. The Crimson Tide just lost their second-leading scorer, Aden Holloway, who averaged 16 points per game and shot 43% from three. That’s not a minor piece. That’s a major part of their offense gone, and it completely changes their backcourt dynamic. Now you’re asking Alabama to adjust on the fly—in the NCAA Tournament.

The recent form isn’t great either. They dropped two of their last three, and the overall vibe around this team is shaky. You’ve got distractions, lineup changes, and added pressure. That’s not what you want laying double digits in March.

Hofstra is not some random 13-seed. They’ve already beaten Syracuse and Pittsburgh earlier this year. They led the CAA in efficiency metrics all season. Cruz Davis is a legit scorer at 20 points per game, and he’s going to attack an Alabama defense that has shown vulnerability at the guard position.

Stylistically, this is where it gets interesting. Hofstra plays slow—very slow. Alabama wants to run. If Hofstra controls tempo, crashes the glass, and forces this into a half-court game, that neutralizes Alabama’s biggest strength. Fewer possessions, tighter game, more pressure. That’s how upsets are built.

And here’s the kicker—if you’re betting this at Bet365 and Hofstra goes up by 10 points at any time, you get paid out automatically. That’s massive in a game like this. You’re not just betting the upset—you’re getting protection the moment Hofstra grabs control.

Alabama is vulnerable. Hofstra is capable. The setup is there.

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