Bookmaker    +14 -110

Posted at 8:00 AM ET. Odds are subject to change

Fresno State +14 over Kansas

Memorial Stadium – Lawrence, KS

6:30 PM ET. If you think Kansas is finally ready to level up, you're not alone — the market agrees. The Jayhawks are being priced like a team with something to prove, but we’ve heard this story before. The problem is, every time the hype swells around Kansas, reality shows up and pops the balloon.

Yes, Jalon Daniels is back. Yes, he’s a human highlight reel when healthy. And yes, Lance Leipold has done good work rebuilding the brand. But let’s not pretend this is a seamless operation. Daniels hasn’t stayed on the field for a full season in years. This offense is pieced together with transfer parts, and Week 0 is rarely kind to teams still trying to figure out who they are.

Fresno State is the opposite. They’ve been written off. They’re not flashy. They didn’t win a bowl game last year. But they’re scrappy, they’re experienced, and they’re playing with house money. The Bulldogs have nothing to lose, and that’s exactly the mindset we want when taking back two scores in a Week 0 market spot where the favourite hasn’t proven a damn thing.

This is a classic case of market inflation. Kansas closed 2024 with a flurry, but still finished 5-7. The oddsmakers aren’t lining this up like a tune-up — they opened it at +12.5 for the dog, and the line keeps creeping. That’s your signal. This isn’t a mismatch. This is a trap. Don’t fall in.

Fresno doesn’t need to win — though it wouldn’t shock us. They just need to show up, and we’ve seen this movie enough times to know that Kansas tends to leave the back door wide open. We'll bite.

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