Bookmaker    -10 -110

Posted at 8:00 AM ET. Odds are subject to change

Kentucky -10 over Toledo

Kroger Field – Lexington, KY

12:45 PM ET. Toledo has become the trendy upset pick in Week One. The Rockets boast a history of toppling bigger programs and knocked off two Power Four teams in 2024, including Pitt in the Quick Lane Bowl. That makes them a natural underdog darling against Kentucky, who limped to a 4-8 record last year.

This is the wrong read. Kentucky pushed #1 Georgia to the wire last September and beat then-#6 Ole Miss. The collapse that followed has obscured the true ceiling of Mark Stoops’ team. Stoops remains the longest-tenured coach in the SEC and has built consistent winners throughout his tenure. A down year does not erase that foundation.

The oddsmakers know the Rockets are an appealing underdog, which means this line is shaded to invite Toledo money. If Kentucky had finished stronger in 2024, this spread would be far higher. The Wildcats need only win by two touchdowns, which is well within reach.

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