Posted at 8:00 AM ET. Odds are subject to change

TCU -3½ over North Carolina

Kenan Stadium, Chapel Hill, NC

8:00 PM ESt. Let’s just start with the obvious: Bill Belichick isn’t the genius the headlines are selling. His record without Tom Brady? A glorious 83–97. That’s not exactly the type of ratio you’d carve into Mount Rushmore. Yet somehow, we’re being asked to believe that a 73-year-old NFL lifer who couldn’t win games with Mac Jones is suddenly going to dominate the ACC, a league where recruiting, NIL, and actual enthusiasm matter. If that sounds more like HBO comedy than ESPN primetime, that’s because it is. And like any good rerun, the laugh track comes free of charge.

The hype machine in Chapel Hill has been humming like a leaf blower all summer, but let’s take a breath. We’ve heard this song before — Coach Prime rode into Boulder with more cameras than cornerbacks, and we all know how quickly reality caught up once September rolled around. Now we’re supposed to buy into a circus headlined by Belichick and his 24-year-old sidekick? Please. If the bookmakers want to inflate UNC’s value just because TMZ shows up to practice, that’s fine by us. We fade public hype for a living, and right now the Heels are basically Dogecoin in shoulder pads.

Meanwhile, TCU is sitting quietly in the corner, actually preparing for a football game. Sonny Dykes returns his quarterback, both coordinators, and a solid chunk of production on both sides of the ball. The Horned Frogs finished last year strong, covering their last four games, and unlike UNC, they aren’t busy installing facial recognition scanners at practice to keep binoculars out. Sure, they’ve had some slow September starts in recent years, but at least their chaos comes on the field, not from PR emails and tabloid distractions.

In the end, this number is all about perception. Belichick’s shadow looms large, but the man without Brady is just another coach with a mediocre record. The market is treating his debut like it’s the second coming, when in reality it’s more like a dress rehearsal of “Hard Knocks: Chapel Hill Edition.” We’ll happily grab TCU, fade the noise, and let the public fall over itself betting on the brand of a coach who hasn’t proven he can win without his quarterback savior. Horned Frogs by plenty — and we’ll be laughing all the way to the window.

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