Posted at 8:00 AM ET. Odds are subject to change

Western Illinois +27½ over Northwestern

Northwestern Medicine Field at Martin Stadium – Evanston, IL

7:30 PM ET. This isn’t about an FBS–FCS divide. It’s about Northwestern being priced like a team they aren’t. The Wildcats got run over 23–3 by Tulane last week as a short dog, and instead of the market downgrading them, it’s giving them nearly four touchdowns worth of credit against anyone with a pulse. That’s absurd.

The setup screams look-ahead. Oregon rolls into Evanston next week for a high-noon kickoff, which means the Wildcats are far more likely to be going through the motions here. Meanwhile, Western Illinois just got dusted by Illinois as a 48.5-point underdog. That was against a top-10 program with speed and depth Northwestern simply doesn’t have. The Leathernecks will find this assignment a step down in class.

Northwestern hasn’t shown they can score 40 points in any context, and yet that’s what will be required to cover this inflated number. Western Illinois doesn’t need to be perfect. They just need to hit pay dirt once or twice and let Northwestern’s lack of urgency do the rest. We'll stuff the four-plus touchdowns in our pocket and hope we don't need them. 

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