New Mexico @ UCLA
UCLA -15½ -110 over New Mexico

Posted at 8:00 AM ET. Odds are subject to change

UCLA -15½ over New Mexico

Rose Bowl – Pasadena, CA

10:00 PM ET. UCLA has looked awful. They were obliterated by Utah, then lost to UNLV in a game the market pounded the Rebels. They’ve failed to cover five straight, and their stock has cratered. On paper, it makes no sense for this team to be laying more than two touchdowns against anyone.

That’s exactly why we’re playing them.

New Mexico has looked mildly competent, but context matters. Idaho State nearly beat UNLV in Week Zero, then lost to New Mexico. UNLV then beat UCLA. The market sees that triangle and assumes UCLA is the worst of the bunch. Oddsmakers don’t see it that way. If the Bruins had handled Utah or UNLV, this line would be closer to -30. Instead, we’re offered a deflated number.

UCLA is better than they’ve shown, the Lobos are still the Lobos, and this is the spot to buy low.

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Our Pick

UCLA -15½ -110 (Risking 2.20 units - To Win: 2.00)

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