Posted Friday at 12:00pm EST and odds are subject to change.

NFL Week: 4

What you see below is our early leans. Many of the selections below will stay the same and some will be moved into official plays with wagers on Sunday. However, there is also the possibility that we see, read or get a sense that something is not right with one of our selections and change our pick. There are several different criteria we use to grade a game and make it an official play and a lot of things can happen or change between Friday and Sunday. We’ll have all write-ups (except Monday Night Football) posted on Friday but our actual wagers won’t be posted until Sunday morning between 10 AM and 12:00 PM EST

Sunday, September 28

Minnesota -2½ over Pittsburgh

Croke Park – Dublin, Ireland

1:00 PM ET. Sports bettors often prefer to lose money backing teams that align with their personal beliefs about how a game “should” play out, rather than setting those emotions aside and making profitable decisions. It’s cognitive dissonance in its purest form. Most don’t even recognize what they’re doing and never will. Thus, the NFL circus rolls on. This game fits that perfectly.

 

The NFL makes its first-ever stop at Dublin’s historic Croke Park, and while the setting is unique, the handicap is not: Pittsburgh is once again being propped up by smoke and mirrors. Through three weeks the Steelers are 2-1, but those wins came in games where they were badly outgained and bailed out by turnovers. They needed a miracle 60-yard field goal to erase a 15-point deficit in Week 1, and last week in Foxborough, they beat the Patriots despite Aaron Rodgers throwing for just 139 yards and the offense losing all rhythm after jumping ahead early. New England turned the ball over five times, twice inside the Pittsburgh 2-yard line, and still had a chance to tie late. That’s not winning football, that’s survival and extreme luck. When you win the turnover margin by 5, you’re supposed to win by 40 points, not hang on for dear life.

 

Minnesota, meanwhile, put together its cleanest performance of the season in Week 3, hammering the Bengals thanks to its defense and a ground game anchored by Jordan Mason. That defense figures to pressure Rodgers into panic throws and force a mistake or two. Rodgers is feeling his age with each hit hurting more than the last one. Brian Flores has quietly built a disruptive defensive unit, producing four sacks against Cincinnati. With Jordan Addison returning to the lineup, Carson Wentz won’t be asked to do too much. When the Vikings play complementary football, they are far more reliable than the house of cards Pittsburgh has been stacking.

 

The Steelers’ reputation is doing heavy lifting here. Rodgers’ late touchdown pass to Calvin Austin III is the highlight, but the context is more telling: the Steelers only had a chance because New England repeatedly coughed the ball up. This offense is averaging fewer than 250 yards per game and ranks near the bottom of the league in every offensive metric. When turnovers dry up, there’s no Plan B. That profile simply does not hold up in a neutral-site showcase where discipline and execution matter more than voodoo magic.

 

The Vikings come in off a dominant win where they didn’t need smoke and mirrors to get the job done. The Steelers? They’re being priced as if Rodgers can carry a one-dimensional roster across the Atlantic. Don’t buy it. This is the wrong team to prop up on reputation. Vikings roll in Dublin by sticking to the blueprint: defense, run game, and patience. Recommendation: Minnesota -2½.

 

Cleveland +10 over Detroit

Ford Field, Detroit, Michigan

1:00 PM ET. Detroit’s Monday night beatdown of Baltimore was impossible to ignore. Outgaining the league’s top-rated team by 108 yards, averaging 6.5 yards per play, not allowing a sack, and taking care of the football—this was the kind of performance that resonates. The world saw it, the stats back it up, and Jared Goff continues to dominate indoors with a 42-18-1 ATS mark since 2019. On paper, Detroit laying double digits looks easy.

 

Cleveland, on the other hand, “won” last week against Green Bay, but let’s be honest—this wasn’t a statement performance. Thirteen points in a game they needed to steal isn’t exactly inspiring. Sure, the Browns walked away with the W, but that kind of gritty, opportunistic win doesn’t carry the same weight as a full-blown thrashing in front of the nation. Detroit’s Monday magic is the kind of performance that sticks, and the Browns’ “win” barely whispers.

 

That’s why Cleveland +10 is intriguing. The market is giving Detroit credit for a show the Browns can’t match in impact or optics. Their offense has struggled to consistently move the needle, and any misstep from the Lions could flip this game. This line has value because it’s built on perception more than reality—take the Browns to stay within striking distance, and don’t overpay for Detroit’s Monday highlight reel. Recommendation: Cleveland +10

 

Tennessee +7 over Houston

NRG Stadium Houston Texas

1:00 PM ET. Houston has dominated recent meetings with Tennessee, winning and covering four of the last five. Still, the Titans showed they can pull off an upset in Houston just last season, rallying as an eight-point underdog behind Will Levis. That result feels like a distant memory—since then, Tennessee has gone 0-9 straight-up and 1-8 ATS. The lone cover came by a single point in Denver, highlighting just how rough the stretch has been.
 

The Texans’ offense hasn’t given anyone much reason for optimism this season. They’ve failed to reach 20 points in any of their first three games, ranking dead last in rushing success rate and bottom two in EPA per play and overall success rate. Houston’s struggles are not subtle—they’re broken. Even with Christian Kirk back for the Titans, the Texans look like a team that could gift a defensive score or two if the game slips into chaos.

 

Tennessee, on the other hand, is built for low-scoring scraps. Their defense has been relentless, and with a rookie quarterback under center for Houston, the Titans’ chances of staying within striking distance—and even pulling off a shocker—are real. Recommendation: Tennessee +7.

  

New England -5½ over Carolina

Gillette Stadium – Foxborough, MA

1:00 PM ET. This number stands out like a sore thumb. When the book tells us something, we listen. Carolina comes in after a dominant 30-0 win over Atlanta, and sure, that kind of performance earns headlines, but the NFL isn’t about headlines—it’s about execution, matchups, and discipline. The Panthers’ confidence will be tested against a Patriots team that knows how to control the game at home.

 

New England is still working through a frustrating 21-14 loss to Pittsburgh, but the underlying performance tells a different story. Against the Steelers, the Patriots generated 369 yards and 26 first downs, and they punted just once. That’s not luck—it’s sustained efficiency. Add in the fact that the over is 10-5 in New England games since Drake Maye took over at quarterback, and the offense’s profile is clear: No. 15 in EPA per play, No. 8 in EPA per pass attempt, and No. 6 in passing success rate.

 

Defensively, New England remains elite against the run, holding all three opponents to under 65 rushing yards. Bryce Young and the Panthers will need more than 100 yards on the ground to even scratch that threshold. Carolina’s offensive line and depth take hits too, with Tetairoa McMillan, Xavier Legette, and linebacker D.J. Wonnum missing practice.

 

This is a team that thrives on fundamentals and clean football. They will punish mistakes and control tempo. Carolina has the talent to put points on the board, but the Patriots’ offense is efficient, patient, and opportunistic. Both teams have the potential to shoot it out, but New England’s balance, home-field advantage, and turnover discipline tilt the scales. Recommendation: New England -5½

 

New Orleans +15½ over Buffalo
Highmark Stadium – Orchard Park, NY

1:00 PM Et. This number is bloated. Buffalo is a juggernaut, winners of 13 straight at home and scoring 30-plus in each of their first three games. Josh Allen is taking care of the ball, the offense is balanced, and the market is more than happy to lay lumber with a team that looks like a Super Bowl frontrunner. That’s the tax you’re paying to back the Bills here.

 

New Orleans is the exact opposite profile: a first-year head coach, heavy penalties, and a 0-3 record after getting embarrassed in Seattle last week. That’s the surface read, and that’s why this price is out of whack. Look closer and the Saints were within a score late in the fourth against Arizona and San Francisco before falling short. Spencer Rattler has enough experience now to generate late points, and when you’re taking back north of two converted touchdowns, those garbage-time drives matter.

 

Covering -15½ in the NFL is no small task. Buffalo is just 19-19-3 ATS as a seven-point favorite or higher in the Allen era, and asking them to win this one by three scores is not a high-percentage proposition. The Bills may win comfortably, but the true value is with the Saints plus the inflated points. Recommendation: New Orleans +15½

   

Las Vegas -1 over Chicago

SoFi Stadium Las Vegas Nevada

4:25 PM ET. The market has latched onto Chicago’s win over Dallas last week as if it signaled some great awakening for the Bears. It didn’t. Dallas was lifeless, uninspired, and down its best offensive player in CeeDee Lamb. At halftime it was still 14-14, and only after the Cowboys imploded did Chicago separate. Caleb Williams completed some nice throws, but Dak Prescott was 31-for-40, and the Cowboys still ran for 7.6 yards a carry. That’s not dominance — that’s variance.

 

The Bears are now being painted as “a team on the rise” when in reality, all they did was beat a Dallas team in disarray. That sets the table for a dangerous overreaction. The market is acting like Chicago’s issues are suddenly fixed, but we don’t buy it. Their offensive line is still shaky, their defense still gives up big plays, and one win over a collapsing Cowboys side doesn’t change their trajectory.

 

Now contrast that with the Raiders. Their loss last week was noise. A handful of fluky sequences and unusual plays derailed any rhythm in that game, and yet, they still averaged 5.7 yards per play. Geno Smith threw for 289 yards and three touchdowns on just 29 attempts. That’s efficiency. That’s an offence that moves the ball.

 

The Raiders have been undervalued all year because their wins haven’t been flashy. They grind out drives, they don’t shoot themselves in the foot often, and they’ve got a QB who’s been steady, accurate, and turnover-free in three of four starts. They’re not going to wow you with highlight reels, but they’re also not going to melt down the way Dallas did last week. Reccomendation: Las Vegas -1