Posted at 8:00 AM ET. Odds are subject to change

Kansas City +125 over Baltimore

Arrowhead Stadium, Kansas City, Missouri

4:25 PM ET. The market has decided Baltimore is not only the better team right now, but five points better than Kansas City on a neutral field. That’s the only way you arrive at the Ravens laying -2½ in Arrowhead last year and -2½ on the road here. Sorry, but that’s a leap we’re not taking. Baltimore has been electric on offense, no doubt. Lamar and company look like they’re picking up right where they left off, leading the league in all the sexy metrics again. The scoreboard confirms it too — three straight overs, 41 dropped on Buffalo, 38 on Detroit. That sells. That drives hype. That shapes a line.

While everyone drools over Baltimore’s offense, no one seems too interested in the other side of the ball. This defense has been torched repeatedly, and not by scrubs. Josh Allen and Jared Goff both made them look mortal. This week they get Patrick Mahomes, who has owned this matchup for the better part of a decade. KC has won six of the last seven head-to-heads, and the Ravens’ lone win was way back in 2021. Baltimore’s defense remains the great liability, and it hasn’t been priced in here.

Meanwhile, the Chiefs are not nearly as “down” as the market wants you to believe. Injuries have masked their true ceiling, but reinforcements are on the way. Xavier Worthy has been practicing and may return to stretch the field this week. Even without him, Mahomes and Andy Reid have kept this offense functional. The bigger story is the defense, which has quietly stabilized after a shaky start. KC has allowed fewer explosive plays than Baltimore and is less mistake-prone.

Let’s also not forget the spot. The Ravens are coming in off a short week, traveling, with everyone lining up to bet them because they’ve been lighting up scoreboards. Kansas City at home catching points? That’s not a common sight. We’ll side with the home side that’s been undervalued, in a matchup they’ve dominated for years.

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