Posted at 8:00 AM ET. Odds are subject to change

San Francisco -3½ over Jacksonville 

Levi’s Stadium, Santa Clara, California

4:05 PM ET. Jacksonville just got a monkey off their back with that win over Houston, their first home victory against the Texans since 2017. That emotional lift is real, but it comes at a cost: the adrenaline of finally breaking that streak can easily carry over into complacency. The Jags are still a young, up-and-down team, and their “discipline” is often situational. Against a disciplined, deep, and schematically versatile team like San Francisco, it’s hard to imagine they’ll keep their foot on the gas for four full quarters.

This sets up a classic letdown spot: a non-conference road game against a top-tier opponent after an emotionally significant win. San Francisco is the kind of opponent that will exploit minor lapses immediately. The 49ers don’t need perfection; they just need Jacksonville to drift a bit in coverage, miscommunicate on assignments, or struggle to handle pressure on early downs—and the 49ers will capitalize.

So while the Jaguars have momentum, it’s the wrong kind of momentum for a team facing a disciplined 49ers squad at home. San Francisco has the advantage in execution, depth, and situational experience, which makes the -3 line look comfortable. It’s exactly the kind of spot where emotional highs meet professional execution, and the 49ers usually win that matchup. It is also noteworthy that the Jags host the Chiefs on Monday Night Football next week. Baboom.

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