Washington @ Atlanta
Washington +115 over Atlanta

Posted at 8:00 AM ET. Odds are subject to change

Washington +115 over Atlanta

Mercedes-Benz Stadium – Atlanta, GA

1:00 PM ET. The line tells the story here: Jayden Daniels isn’t playing. If he were, Washington would be laying a field goal or better on the road. That alone should be enough to raise eyebrows, because what we’re really being asked is to back Atlanta with a coaching staff already reshuffling assistants, churning kickers, and looking for answers three weeks into the season. That’s not a team we want to trust with our money.

Washington just put 41 on the board against Vegas in a wild game that featured four touchdowns of 40+ yards and nearly 400 return yards between the two sides. On the surface, it looks like Washington ran hot — and they did — but the takeaway isn’t that they’re lucky. It’s that their playmakers can tilt the field in an instant, whether Daniels is under center or not. The Commanders have now won and covered four straight against the Falcons, including last year’s 30-24 OT victory. That’s not fluke territory. That’s a matchup edge.

Atlanta, on the other hand, has been a steady source of unders, staying below the total in all three games. That’s because their offense doesn’t scare anyone. You don’t cover spreads in this league without scoring, and right now the Falcons are struggling to get out of their own way. The market is hinting at value on Atlanta as a short home dog, but we’re not buying it. Washington has the better roster, the better weapons, and the better results in this head-to-head. We’ll trust the Commanders to extend their dominance, JD or not.

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Our Pick

Washington +115 (Risking 2 units - To Win: 2.30)

NY Giants +240 over LA Chargers
San Francisco -3½ +100 over Jacksonville
Kansas City +125 over Baltimore
Dallas +6½ -110 over Green Bay
LA Rams -3½ -105 over Indianapolis
Philadelphia -3½ -110 over Tampa Bay
Early Leans & Analysis over