Posted at 8:00 AM ET. Odds are subject to change

Los Angeles Rams -3½ over Indianapolis

SoFi Stadium – Inglewood, CA

4:05 PM ET. The Colts have stormed out to a 3-0 start behind Daniel Jones, but don’t let the box score fool you. Indianapolis hasn’t faced a defense like the Rams yet. Los Angeles comes home after back-to-back early-window East Coast road games, a rested, veteran squad with the ability to dictate tempo and punish young quarterbacks in high-leverage situations. The Colts’ efficient attack against Tennessee looks good on paper, but Jones has yet to take real heat from a disciplined pass rush, and the Rams excel at creating those uncomfortable spots.

Los Angeles’ loss to Philadelphia looked ugly, but the numbers tell a different story. Stafford and the offense still generated 363 yards, the running game thrived, and the defense held firm after halftime. With 12 sacks through three games and a top-five defense in both yards allowed and success rate, the Rams can bend without breaking. Indianapolis has been impressive, but they’ve yet to face a team that forces mistakes, controls field position, and rotates personnel effectively.

The market is catching up. The line opened at -4½, now sits at -3½, reflecting the Colts’ undefeated ATS start versus the reality of the matchup. Young, high-scoring teams can be vulnerable to situational pressure, and this is exactly that spot. Rams at home, coming off a loss in a game they should have won against the Super Bowl champs are positioned to impose their will.

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