Posted at 8:00 AM ET. Odds are subject to change

Philadelphia -3½ over Tampa Bay

Raymond James Stadium – Tampa, FL

1:00 PM ET. Tampa Bay has started 3-0, but peel back the scores and it’s a house built on sand. All three wins came in the final minute and were decided by a combined six points. That is not a sustainable formula, especially with a roster already missing pieces. Mike Evans is out, Chris Godwin hasn’t played, three offensive line starters were absent last week, and Calijah Kancey is gone for the year. Baker Mayfield is a battler, but asking him to keep bailing water while this roster erodes is not a winning wager.

Philadelphia comes in on a 19-1 heater since their last visit to Tampa, and while not every win has been pretty, the Eagles keep finding ways to tilt the field. Last week they erased a 19-point deficit against the Rams, fueled by Jalen Hurts’ second-half surge and a game-breaking special teams play. Saquon Barkley hasn’t found his groove yet and the defense is dinged up, but Philly’s depth and explosiveness is the difference here. Hurts is 1-3 lifetime against Tampa, which keeps the number modest, yet that history means little given the current form of these rosters.

The market is asking us to pay for Tampa’s record without accounting for how fluky it’s been or how beat up they are. This is Philly’s fifth straight trip to Tampa, which is absurd scheduling, but this time the spot lines up. The Eagles are the sharper, healthier side and the wrong team is being priced like a coin flip.

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